The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has forecast a potential shortfall in east coast gas supply for Q3, prompting calls for industry-led solutions to shore up domestic availability.
In its latest interim report released as part of its ongoing inquiry into Australia’s gas supply, the ACCC outlined that the east coast market could face a shortfall of up to 9 petajoules (PJ) during the peak winter quarter if all uncontracted gas is exported.
Conversely, a surplus of 6 PJ is possible if exports are limited to expected spot sales. The forecast represents a 22 PJ decline from projections published in December 2024.
The ACCC attributed the deterioration in outlook to a 13.6 PJ decline in forecast production across multiple basins, reduced seasonal gas swap volumes, and increased LNG exports under long-term contracts.
The southern states face the most significant pressure, with a projected shortfall of 40 PJ — the highest on record for the quarter.
The Commission noted that its updated forecast “significantly differs” from its previous outlook and reflects both the inherent uncertainty of forecasting and the market’s sensitivity to near-term changes in production and gas availability.
Given the tighter supply-demand balance, the ACCC reiterated its September 2024 recommendation that LNG producers take the domestic gas outlook into account before making material changes to export schedules.
It is also considering whether future reports should include more detailed information about individual LNG producers’ positions and decisions, where such disclosure would be in the public interest.
While the ACCC expects sufficient gas and infrastructure capacity to meet the southern states’ demand, it cautioned that the current outlook offers “little buffer” for unplanned events.
Gas storage at the Iona facility will be critical, with the site expected to reach its 24.4 PJ nameplate capacity by early May.
To mitigate the shortfall risk, the ACCC recommends the government work with LNG producers on a voluntary, industry-led solution to secure up to 15 PJ of un-contracted gas for domestic use.
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