Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) published its 2025 gas statement opportunities, identifying shortfall risks in southern Australia from 2028 – a noticeable revision from its previous 2025 projection.
AEMO pointed to expected falls in national consumption of gas, and the delayed retirement of Eraring power station (reducing forecast gas-powered generation of electricity in the near term while it remains online) as reason for the revision.
The report also highlighted the need for new gas to fill potential supply gaps beyond 2028, as production falls faster than consumption.
The matter is also complicated by long-term LNG export contracts, which year-on-year account for roughly two-thirds of total national gas consumption, with the product bound for international markets.
“From 2028, seasonal supply gaps may emerge in southern Australia if conditions lead to sustained high gas usage, while expanded production of uncertain supply will be needed to meet domestic and export positions in northern Australia,” the report said.
“In 2029 and later … annual supply gaps are forecast meaning a structural need for new gas supply beyond developments classified as committed and anticipated is necessary.”
Australian Energy Producers CEO Samantha McColluch said the report made it clear that there was no room for complacency if the east coast is to avoid projected gas shortfalls.
“The gas statement of opportunities makes clear that governments and regulators must work with industry to remove regulatory barriers to new gas supply and investments to maintain supply adequacy,” McCulloch said.
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